Prediction Markets, Earnings and June Revenue Reports: Gambling Stories to Watch This Week
A Congress subcommittee will discuss sports event contracts, while gambling operators begin reporting earnings, and more June sports betting figures are likely to come.
Prediction markets remain at the center of gambling industry developments this week, as Congress prepares to examine sports event contracts and the sector continues drawing mainstream attention following record World Cup trading activity and new product launches. Meanwhile, casino operators begin reporting second-quarter earnings and additional states are expected to publish June sports betting revenue figures.
Congress Revisits Prediction Markets
The House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets and Rural Development is scheduled to hold a July 21 hearing titled “Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets.”
The hearing comes approximately three months after CFTC Chair Michael Selig testified before the full House Agriculture Committee. At that meeting, lawmakers pressed him on the agency’s position on war-related markets, insider trading, Trump’s family ties to Kalshi and Polymarket, and whether event contracts should be treated as gambling products.
The upcoming meeting also follows a Senate Agriculture Subcommittee hearing in May that featured sharp criticism of prediction markets from lawmakers. Senators also questioned whether sports event contracts are functioning as unregulated gambling rather than legitimate financial products.
What to watch:
- Lawmakers’ questions and sentiment towards sports event contracts.
- Whether the subcommittee signals support for new legislation or whether sports event contracts belong under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Prediction Markets Stay in the Spotlight
World Cup Trading Volumes Remain in Focus
While the FIFA World Cup is now over, mainstream media will continue to analyze the sector’s rapid growth and trading volume tied to the tournament.
Multiple outlets have recently cited a H2 Gambling Capital estimate that prediction markets account for around 27% of all legal U.S. sports betting volume during the World Cup. The share has tripled from the 9% at the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, a Macquarie report estimates that prediction markets generated more than $50 billion in trading volume during June, primarily driven by the tournament.
What to watch:
Additional reporting on World Cup trading activity and updated market share estimates.
Underdog Launches Standalone Prediction Market Exchange
Over the weekend, Underdog announced the launch of its own prediction market exchange.
The launch follows Underdog’s acquisition of Aristotle Exchange, a designated contract market (DCM) and derivatives clearing organization (DCO) in March. Last week, Aristotle self-certified seven event contract categories.
Attention now shifts to how the platform will operate, including the range of contracts it will offer and the volume of trading activity it will attract.
What to watch:
New information about available contracts, state availability, product features and the company’s broader strategy for prediction markets.
Courts Could Deliver New Developments
Prediction market litigation also remains active.
In New York, Kalshi is seeking an injunction pending appeal after a federal judge denied the company’s request for a preliminary injunction earlier this month. State officials must respond by July 22.
Meanwhile, Ireland’s Gambling Regulatory Authority has threatened High Court proceedings against Polymarket unless the platform ceases offering services in the country.
Additional rulings and filings are also possible in several ongoing prediction market cases around the country.
What to watch:
- A possible decision on Kalshi’s emergency request.
- Response from Polymarket in Ireland.
- Additional legal filings are in the growing number of prediction market disputes.
Earnings Season Continues
Second-quarter earnings season continues this week, with several notable gaming companies scheduled to report. Last week, notable reports came from content provider Evolution and online operator Betsson. This week, the attention shifts to traditional casino operators.
Companies with upcoming earnings releases include:
- Monarch Casino & Resort — July 20
- Las Vegas Sands — July 22
- Boyd Gaming — July 23
What to watch:
- Las Vegas and Nevada performance (Monarch and Boyd)
- Commentary from Las Vegas Sands on Texas legalization efforts and other U.S. expansion opportunities.
- Broad commentary on consumer demand and regional gaming trends.
More June Sports Betting Revenue Reports Expected
Additional states, such as Michigan and Massachusetts, are expected to publish their June sports betting revenue figures during the week, continuing to build the picture of how operators performed during the early summer sports calendar and the World Cup.
Notable states such as New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have already released June figures.
What to watch:
Handle and revenue growth, operator hold, market share changes and any indication of how much the World Cup boosted June betting activity.
Other Industry Developments to Watch
IRS Gambling Tax Debate Continues
Last Friday, the IRS held a public hearing on the implementation of the new 90% cap on gambling losses.
Congress members, tax professionals, poker players, lobbyists and hobby gamblers spoke up against the tax change. Several participants have already shared details of their testimony on social media, with additional commentary expected in the coming days.
What to watch:
Additional comments from lawmakers, industry organizations, tax experts and professional gamblers, along with any commentary from the IRS.
Integrity Investigations Continue
Several gambling-related investigations could also produce new developments this week.
Regulators, such as the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, are reviewing the Bryce Harper/FanDuel promotional video, which made headlines over a week ago. Since the video’s appearance, Harper has stated he did not authorize the use of his likeness.
Separately, Arizona Cardinals Director of College Scouting Ryan Gold is appealing his indefinite NFL suspension over alleged violations of the league’s gambling policy.
What to watch:
- Any action by regulators, such as the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, regarding the Harper matter or any other updates to the story.
- Updates on Gold’s appeal and any new details about the allegations underlying his suspension.
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